Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18?

Resolved

Down, settled Jan 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$726.4K

Resolved

Down

Settled

Jan 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Down on 18 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Down at 55%. Yes opened at 51% on 17 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 18 Jan 2026, the highest close was 51% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 45% on 18 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 45% on 18 Jan 2026. $726.42K traded over the market's life.

510 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 12:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 18 Jan 2026, chart shows 40%–55%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
17 Jan 2026	51.0%
18 Jan 2026	45.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
borbun	Up	49K
reny8	Up	19.83K
Fitting-Neuropathologist	Up	19K
exceeding	Up	15.39K

10 of 510 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jan 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jan 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jan 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jan 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.