Analytics
Resolved Down on 16 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Down at 79.5%. The Up side opened at 50% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 16 Jan 2026, the highest close was 50% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 16 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 20.5% on 16 Jan 2026. $504.32K traded over the market's life.
309 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 16 Jan 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | 20.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| julius83423 | Up | 40.26K |
| Keen Falcon 62A1 | Up | 16.27K |
| trader-minato | Up | 14.89K |
| Smug-Ideology | Up | 12K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jan 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jan 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jan 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jan 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-january-16
| hahaha0618 | Up | 9.88K |
| cal8891 | Up | 8K |
| Wediz | Up | 7.15K |
| Zzz | Up | 6.71K |
| MORE214 | Up | 5.25K |
| kederrac | Up | 5.19K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
