Bitcoin Up or Down on January 1?

Resolved

Up, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$220.1K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Up on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Up at 46%. Yes opened at 51% on 31 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 54% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 51% on 31 Dec 2025. $220.08K traded over the market's life.

379 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 3, 12:27 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 45%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Dec 2025	51.0%
1 Jan 2026	54.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
korgige	Down	21.63K
exceeding	Down	5.31K
AllByMyseIf	Down	4K
Basketking	Down	3.3K
gobblewobble	Down	3.29K
IH2P	Down	2.77K
Glaring-Dime	Down	2.75K
Joint-Maestro	Down	2.6K
CryptoSaiyan	Up	1.13K
binzi	Down	999.99

10 of 379 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Dec 31 '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jan 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Dec 31 '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jan 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.