Analytics
Resolved Down on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Down at 58.5%. The Up side opened at 53.5% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 53.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 41.5% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 41.5% on 31 Dec 2025. $488.01K traded over the market's life.
138 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 31 Dec 2025, chart shows 35%–60%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 53.5% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 41.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| exceeding | Up | 25.96K |
| gobblewobble | Up | 7.79K |
| freevenezuela | Up | 7.5K |
| YGs | Up | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Dec 30 '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Dec 31 '25 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Dec 30 '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Dec 31 '25 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-december-31
| lucaspk | Up | 4.45K |
| BigChieff | Up | 2.72K |
| Fartard | Up | 2K |
| skycyber | Up | 1.61K |
| khjih | Up | 1K |
| hjdfhdjk | Up | 1K |
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