Analytics
Resolved Negative on 17 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Negative at 0.3%. The Positive side opened at 50% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 17 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.7% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 50% on 15 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 99.7% on 17 Jan 2026. $5.11K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Positive price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 17 Jan 2026
| Observed | Positive price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 17 Jan 2026 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bluulight | Positive | 2K |
| xarb-2009 | Positive | 450 |
| shaozhongchao | Positive | 138.73 |
| yuxiatuan | Positive | 121.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Friday, January 16, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://farside.co.uk/btc/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-etf-flows-on-january-16
| kehewen | Positive | 119.35 |
| reyaji | Positive | 70.87 |
| laofentang | Positive | 33.53 |
| angweibo | Positive | 32.7 |
| jiaobayi | Positive | 29.65 |
| dangjiju | Positive | 29.57 |
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