Analytics
Resolved Negative on 30 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Negative at 87.5%. The Positive side opened at 50% on 28 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 28 Apr 2026 to 30 Apr 2026, the highest close was 53% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 12.5% on 30 Apr 2026. $38.92 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 3:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Positive price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 28 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 2026
| Observed | Positive price |
|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 12.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rocketcrypto | Positive | 5 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Positive | 5 |
| Keen Falcon D40C | Positive | 0.06 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Wednesday, April 29, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://farside.co.uk/btc/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-etf-flows-on-april-29
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