Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 70%. Yes opened at 32% on 29 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 70% on 4 Jan 2026 and the low 20% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 50.5% on 3 Jan 2026. $420.85K traded over the market's life.
107 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 6, 12:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 29 Dec 2025 – 4 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | 32.0% |
| 4 Jan 2026 | 70.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Harbor 80B9 | No | 89.47K |
| amalgame | No | 2.25K |
| Joint-Maestro | No | 2.25K |
| sushi-boyy | No | 2.04K |
| Wifden | No | 1.72K |
| Hdhwhajbdha | No | 1.5K |
| PhongLeXBT | No | 1.29K |
| Noxious-Pith | No | 907.67 |
| player11 | No | 832.79 |
| WarsWeb3 | No | 702 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-january-4
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