Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.8%. Yes opened at 13% on 18 Jul 2023. Before it settled, across the 168 daily closes on record from 18 Jul 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 15% on 24 Aug 2023 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 7.5% on 1 Sep 2023. $44.09K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 7:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 168 points, 18 Jul 2023 – 1 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2023 | 13.0% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 2.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| leoleoleoleo | Yes | 6.02K |
| HedgeHog23 | Yes | 5.11K |
| Starpony | Yes | 2.46K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET that Binance.com is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. This market will also resolve to "Yes" if Binance.com withdrawals for BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days (168 hours) in a row by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If neither of the above criteria are met, this market will resolve to "No". This market only concerns Binance.com. Binance.us is not considered for this market. Binance.com withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority of users are unable to withdraw their BTC and/or ETH from Binance (E.g. If a majority of users are unable to withdraw their ETH from Binance, it will satisfy the condition.) If Binance.com suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of December (e.g. They halt token withdrawals on December 30, 2023, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days (168 hours) pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (December 30, 2023 - January 6, 2024, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this settlement criterion will be official information released by Binance, official representatives of Binance (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/binance-insolvent-in-2023
| Yes |
| 762.05 |
| Cruel-Snowflake | Yes | 507.92 |
| Glistening-Transom | Yes | 300.07 |
| Plaintive-Atheist | No | 300 |
| krye | Yes | 98.08 |
| Gruesome-Desktop | Yes | 72.33 |
| DumbPunter | Yes | 62.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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