Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 3.4%. Yes opened at 48% on 8 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2025 to 29 Nov 2025, the highest close was 62.5% on 9 Nov 2025 and the lowest 3.4% on 29 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 4.5% on 25 Nov 2025. $3.87K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 30, 4:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 8 Nov 2025 – 29 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2025 | 48.0% |
| 29 Nov 2025 | 3.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 1040sa0f34rd024i210r20e1je10d111az | No | 376.71 |
| 0x1Beb1 | No | 330 |
| CanCoolJai | No | 146.77 |
| JVW | Yes | 79.81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On January 3, 2024, Bill Ackman tweeted a 4,064-word novella (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1742441534627184760). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill Ackman’s current X (Twitter) account, @BillAckman, posts any single tweet of 1,000 words or more by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Threads do not aggregate. Only the original version of the tweet as first posted will be considered. The word count will be determined by pasting the tweet’s full text into wordcounter.net.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bill-ackman-tweets-another-manifesto-by-november-30
| Eifel | No | 24.31 |
| TubaJutuba | No | 20.98 |
| Mandarynka | No | 16.59 |
| venoosix | No | 7.12 |
| boja35 | No | 7.07 |
| Utres5 | No | 5.21 |
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