Analytics
Yes is at 23.5%, about where the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026, the price held at 23.5%.
6.1 or more is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026?”, ahead of 5.5 to 5.6 at 17.5%.
$30 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.18K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is buyat89 with 10 shares; the largest No position is bubububblebutt with 20.
Trading closes on 26 Oct 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 10:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 15%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bubububblebutt | No | 20 |
| buyat89 | Yes | 10 |
| sibooooo | Yes | 10 |
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-25
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