Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 17 points from 17.5% when the market opened on 20 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 20 Oct 2026 to 21 Oct 2026, the highest close was 17.5% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 15% on 21 Oct 2026. The current quote, 0.1%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 15% on 21 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 21, 2026?”.
$602.91 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.26K since listing. The order book holds $824.24, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 32 trades, $195.02 bought Yes and $194.68 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Witty-Birch with 282 shares; the largest No position is ergodiclab with 455. Ten wallets hold 87% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 22 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 2:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 20 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–22%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ergodiclab | No | 455.41 |
| Witty-Birch | Yes | 282.38 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 112.35 |
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 21, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 21, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 22, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 21, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 22, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-21
| hfv |
| Yes |
| 110.8 |
| Warped-Follower | No | 45.82 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 40 |
| buyat89 | Yes | 35 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 32.75 |
| Ainocry. | Yes | 27 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 23.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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