Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

Resolved

Boy, settled Aug 29, 2024 UTC

Boy

100.0%

Girl

0.0%

Final Boy 100¢Final Girl 0¢

Lifetime volume

$2.0M

Resolved

Boy

Settled

Aug 29, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Boy on 29 Aug 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Boy at 99.9%. The Boy side opened at 50% on 11 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 111 daily closes on record from 11 May 2024 to 29 Aug 2024, the highest close was 99.9% on 29 Aug 2024 and the lowest 24.5% on 1 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 98.3% on 25 Aug 2024. $2M traded over the market's life.

93 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 30, 2:33 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Boy price, Polymarket CLOB, 111 points, 11 May 2024 – 29 Aug 2024

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
blue-wave	Girl	29.7K
roma.	Girl	2.46K
477	Girl	2.35K

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On May 9, 2024, Hailey Bieber shared photos on Instagram suggesting that she is pregnant (see https://www.instagram.com/p/C6wlW3WPoK2/?img_index=1). This market will resolve to "Boy" if Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives announces they are having a boy. This market will resolve to '"Girl" if Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives announces they are having a girl. If the biological sex of Hailey Bieber's child remains undisclosed this market will resolve to '50-50'. If Hailey Bieber gives birth to more than one child, this market will resolve based on the biological sex of the children. If all children are of the same biological sex, the market will resolve as '"Boy" if all are male, and "Girl" if all are female. If the children are of different sexes, the market will resolve to '50-50'. This market refers only to the pregnancy announced on Instagram on May 9, 2024. Any future pregnancies will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information Hailey and Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives.