Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 85.5%. Yes opened at 48% on 31 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 88 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 29 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 75.5% on 16 Jan 2026 and the lowest 5% on 27 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 24.5% on 9 Feb 2026. $779.88K traded over the market's life.
156 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 11:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 88 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 48.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 14.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 22.14K |
| 0943 | Yes | 20.31K |
| ghd1212 | Yes | 20K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Based's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Based (https://x.com/BasedOneX) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/based-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| Yes |
| 18.29K |
| 554m | Yes | 4K |
| Happy-Center | Yes | 3.73K |
| Kjifa | Yes | 3.42K |
| yueban07 | Yes | 3.2K |
| Handy-Nitrogen | Yes | 2.77K |
| sansui1 | Yes | 1.94K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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