Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 23, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2M

Resolved

Settled

Jan 23, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 23 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 8 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 78 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2025 to 23 Jan 2026, the highest close was 47.5% on 8 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 8.5% on 9 Nov 2025. $1.23M traded over the market's life.

233 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 24, 8:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 8 Nov 2025 – 23 Jan 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	367.49K
Mature-Student	Yes	83.35K
AllByMyseIf	Yes	47.23K

10 of 233 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for January is scheduled to be released on January 23, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's January 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.