Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 19, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$851.5K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 19, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 21% on 31 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 51 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2025 to 19 Dec 2025, the highest close was 21% on 31 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 13 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 1.3% on 1 Nov 2025. $851.49K traded over the market's life.

220 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:42 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 31 Oct 2025 – 19 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Oct 2025	21.0%
19 Dec 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	665.69K
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	29.46K
mango0x	Yes	20K

10 of 220 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for December is scheduled to be released on December 19, 2025 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref240731a.pdf). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's December 2025 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/state_2025/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.