Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 94%. Yes opened at 77.5% on 17 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 17 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 95% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 77.5% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 87% on 18 Oct 2026. $2.87K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 11:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 17 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | 77.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 94.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 150 |
| ksass | No | 100 |
| tsilvestri | No | 99.9 |
| BobbieBarker | No | 52.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
As of market creation, American Express is estimated to release earnings on October 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for American Express's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.53 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if American Express reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.53 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If American Express releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/axp-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-23-2026-4pt53
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