August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 10, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$473.8K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 10, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 14 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2024 to 10 Sep 2024, the highest close was 3.8% on 18 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 3 Sep 2024. $473.76K traded over the market's life.

74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 11, 6:21 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 14 Aug 2024 – 10 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
14 Aug 2024	2.5%
10 Sep 2024	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	310.33K
TrevorScocisty	Yes	1.25K
Ueban	Yes	1K
mogb	Yes	999.99

10 of 74 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules