Analytics
Resolved Nakashima on 25 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Nakashima at 66.5%. The Thompson side opened at 41.5% on 23 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2025 to 25 Sep 2025, the highest close was 41.5% on 23 Sep 2025 and the lowest 32% on 24 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 32% on 24 Sep 2025. $22.76K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 26, 4:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Thompson price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Sep 2025 – 25 Sep 2025, chart shows 30%–45%
| Observed | Thompson price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2025 | 41.5% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | 33.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jade Lynx 6A75 | Thompson | 8.82 |
| Misty Voyager BE24 | Thompson | 8.82 |
| Jade Harbor 0700 | Thompson | 8.82 |
| Crimson Sphinx F493 | Thompson | 5.88 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a polymarket on the tennis match between Jordan Thompson and Brandon Nakashima in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, scheduled for September 23 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thompson' if Jordan Thompson advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Jordan Thompson. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve in favor of the player(s) who officially advances to the next round. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-thompson-vs-nakashima-2025-09-24
| Cosmic Lynx 3DDD | Thompson | 5.88 |
| Lunar Oracle 9ED0 | Thompson | 5.88 |
| Emerald Scout 1D85 | Thompson | 5.88 |
| Indigo Pulse 419D | Thompson | 5.88 |
| Solar Meteor 4F06 | Thompson | 4.65 |
| Coral Sphinx 8668 | Thompson | 4.35 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
