Analytics
Resolved Matteo Arnaldi on 6 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Matteo Arnaldi at 90.5%. Yes opened at 54% on 5 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 5 Aug 2026 to 6 Aug 2026, the highest close was 54% on 5 Aug 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 6 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 9.5% on 6 Aug 2026. $568.75K traded over the market's life.
121 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 12:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 5 Aug 2026 – 6 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | 54.0% |
| 6 Aug 2026 | 9.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ferrariChampions2026 | Fabian Marozsan | 51.68K |
| Crimson Kestrel 02D9 | Fabian Marozsan | 25.14K |
| one8tyfive | Fabian Marozsan | 13.23K |
| sbimbg | Fabian Marozsan |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers to the tennis match between Fabian Marozsan and Matteo Arnaldi in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fabian Marozsan' if Fabian Marozsan advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Fabian Marozsan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-marozsa-arnaldi-2026-08-05
| 10K |
| kokotus | Fabian Marozsan | 7.63K |
| 0x0x23kjookhaiuohduoayh8c9 | Fabian Marozsan | 4.31K |
| comon119 | Fabian Marozsan | 4K |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Fabian Marozsan | 3.45K |
| mamee2 | Fabian Marozsan | 2.7K |
| Hunter33 | Fabian Marozsan | 2.46K |
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