Analytics
Resolved Antoine Ghibaudo on 14 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Antoine Ghibaudo at 62.1%. Yes opened at 26.1% on 12 Jul 2026. Before it settled, the high was 38% on 14 Jul 2026 and the low 25.6% on 13 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 38% on 14 Jul 2026. $42.32K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 15, 10:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 12 Jul 2026 – 14 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | 26.1% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 38.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Reliable-Giggle | Luca Castelnuovo | 8.42K |
| pt2-2804 | Luca Castelnuovo | 251.81 |
| tenidspfmsp | Luca Castelnuovo | 234.55 |
| HeartyCoast1352 | Luca Castelnuovo | 202 |
| Maryyyyyy | Luca Castelnuovo | 185.82 |
| arahbo | Luca Castelnuovo | 162 |
| pettt | Luca Castelnuovo | 101.04 |
| jackccstream | Luca Castelnuovo | 88.2 |
| tenisefgewg | Luca Castelnuovo | 80 |
| dewey-dell-bundren | Luca Castelnuovo | 54.06 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Antoine Ghibaudo in the Pozoblanco, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Antoine Ghibaudo. This market will resolve to 'Antoine Ghibaudo' if Antoine Ghibaudo advances against Luca Castelnuovo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-casteln-ghibaud-2026-07-13
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