Analytics
Resolved Matteo Arnaldi on 30 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Matteo Arnaldi at 44.5%. The Matteo Arnaldi side opened at 46.5% on 29 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 46.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the low 44.5% on 30 Sep 2026. $515.28K traded over the market's life.
113 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 11:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Matteo Arnaldi price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 30 Sep 2026, chart shows 40%–52%
| Observed | Matteo Arnaldi price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 46.5% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 44.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ferrariChampions2026 | Rei Sakamoto | 66.68K |
| useruserlol | Rei Sakamoto | 23.28K |
| sbimbg | Rei Sakamoto | 20K |
| Cosmic Voyager 8792 | Rei Sakamoto | 2.59K |
| anon122 | Rei Sakamoto | 2.45K |
| TRCM | Rei Sakamoto | 2.33K |
| avotrade | Rei Sakamoto | 2.14K |
| GeepaP | Rei Sakamoto | 2K |
| phredmoz | Rei Sakamoto | 1.82K |
| DCAETH | Rei Sakamoto | 1.43K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Rei Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-arnaldi-sakamot-2026-09-29
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