Analytics
Resolved Alcaraz on 25 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Alcaraz at 88.5%. The Alcaraz side opened at 89% on 24 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 25 Jan 2026, the highest close was 89% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 88.5% on 25 Jan 2026. $676.34K traded over the market's life.
68 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Alcaraz price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 25 Jan 2026, chart shows 82%–94%
| Observed | Alcaraz price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | 89.0% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | 88.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SecondWindCapital | Paul | 170.93K |
| knedloveprovelo | Paul | 38.68K |
| Middler0x | Paul | 18.81K |
| synnet | Paul | 6.03K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers on the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul in the Australian Open ATP, scheduled for January 24 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tommy Paul. This market will resolve to 'Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://ausopen.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-alcaraz-paul-2026-01-25
| Punisher2022 | Paul | 4.05K |
| Criminal-Sphynx | Paul | 3.28K |
| c4c4 | Paul | 2.07K |
| Endgamepol | Paul | 1.02K |
| rox119 | Paul | 1K |
| Babajidee | Paul | 933.33 |
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