Analytics
Resolved Alcaraz on 27 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Alcaraz at 16.5%. Yes opened at 81.5% on 26 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 26 Jan 2026 to 27 Jan 2026, the highest close was 83.5% on 27 Jan 2026 and the lowest 81.5% on 26 Jan 2026. $1.79M traded over the market's life.
129 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 28, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 26 Jan 2026 – 27 Jan 2026, chart shows 76%–88%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2026 | 81.5% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | 83.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| theyseemeloosintheyhatin | Minaur | 77.78K |
| Bienville | Minaur | 58.57K |
| Painfulvoid | Minaur | 53.8K |
| tjj13 | Minaur | 30K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers on the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur in the Australian Open ATP, scheduled for January 26 at 7:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-alcaraz-minaur-2026-01-27
| Gh0stTradez | Minaur | 26.64K |
| 0xb21Aklasit671sx9 | Minaur | 25K |
| StaryWaniorek | Minaur | 16.88K |
| snowed | Minaur | 15.13K |
| ALMOST | Minaur | 12.13K |
| c4c4 | Minaur | 11.6K |
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