Analytics
Resolved Carlos Alcaraz on 21 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Carlos Alcaraz at 14.5%. Yes opened at 86.5% on 20 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 21 Mar 2026, the highest close was 86.5% on 20 Mar 2026 and the lowest 85.5% on 21 Mar 2026.
95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 4:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 21 Mar 2026, chart shows 80%–92%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 86.5% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | 85.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| knedloveprovelo | Joao Fonseca | 38.11K |
| Sane-Locality | Joao Fonseca | 13.14K |
| not4fun | Joao Fonseca | 8.5K |
| djokowin | Joao Fonseca | 7.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers on the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Joao Fonseca in the Miami Open, scheduled for March 20 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Joao Fonseca. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-alcaraz-fonseca-2026-03-20
| najada | Joao Fonseca | 5.31K |
| Incomplete-Culture | Joao Fonseca | 5.21K |
| Esvvhjtrfvnki7yg4gbj6yg | Joao Fonseca | 4.05K |
| salahmh | Joao Fonseca | 2.6K |
| neymar1 | Joao Fonseca | 2.3K |
| mortewfenloin | Joao Fonseca | 1.15K |
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