Analytics
Resolved Carlos Alcaraz on 3 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Carlos Alcaraz at 92.5%. The Carlos Alcaraz side opened at 94.5% on 2 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 3 Oct 2026, the highest close was 94.5% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 92.5% on 3 Oct 2026. $256.26K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 6:49 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Carlos Alcaraz price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 3 Oct 2026, chart shows 88%–100%
| Observed | Carlos Alcaraz price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 94.5% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 92.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MilesY | Matteo Arnaldi | 19.09K |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | 13.37K |
| Lilybaeum | Matteo Arnaldi | 10.7K |
| LuckyLoo | Matteo Arnaldi | 6.74K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-alcaraz-arnaldi-2026-10-02
| TRCM | Matteo Arnaldi | 3.33K |
| no1dodgersfan | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.89K |
| AnonymousUsername | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.89K |
| sentrio | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.75K |
| MeistersApprenticeship | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.67K |
| buzaiyouyu | Matteo Arnaldi | 1.63K |
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