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Resolved Yes on 11 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 88.5%. Yes opened at 17% on 10 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 88.5% on 11 Jan 2025 and the low 17% on 10 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 72 points up, to 88.5% on 11 Jan 2025. $181.62K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 6:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 10 Jan 2025 – 11 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2025 | 17.0% |
| 11 Jan 2025 | 88.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BabyYoda12 | No | 1K |
| TimeTraveler | No | 500 |
| closedonlymode20250119 | No | 230.6 |
| baldwinlauren | No | 12.09 |
| aignent | Yes | 0.01 |
| starbuck02 | No | 0.01 |
| montty | No | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On January 9, videos showing alleged acts of arson in Los Angeles county were reported (see: https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-news/arsonists-caught-setting-fires-in-302-pico-in-santa-monica-video-amid-los-angeles-fire-surfaces-article-117073863). This market will resolve to "Yes" if any person is arrested in connection with starting fires in Los Angeles county between January 7, and January 9, by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Actions such as questioning or detention without an individual formally coming under arrest will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arsonists-arrested-in-connection-with-los-angeles-wildfires
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