Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 49.5%. Yes opened at 48% on 13 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 51% on 2 Mar 2026 and the low 41.5% on 18 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 50% on 19 Feb 2026.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 13, 7:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 28 points · 13 Feb 2026 – 12 Mar 2026 · axis zoomed to 35%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | 48.0% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | 50.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cannae | Yes | 15.79K |
| SmartDew1312 | Yes | 3.85K |
| c4c4 | Yes | 1.62K |
| Xero100i | Yes | 1.5K |
| roon49 | Yes | 1K |
| 52xzxawe | Yes | 500 |
| Arbga2026 | Yes | 490 |
| Mountalba | Yes | 337.33 |
| kkpay19888 | Yes | 326 |
| Punisher2022 | Yes | 267 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 11, 2026 If CA Tucumán wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution source: https://www.afa.com.ar/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arg-cat-ald-2026-03-11
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