Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 5 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 5 Aug 2025 to 9 Aug 2025, the highest close was 6.2% on 6 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Aug 2025. $34.23K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 8:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 5 Aug 2025 – 9 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | 3.5% |
| 9 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bylund | Yes | 1.98K |
| titomaza27 | Yes | 867.04 |
| Alec3410 | Yes | 428.37 |
| AnaTati | Yes | 416.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Most of the 62 Texas House Democrats fled the state on Sunday, August 3, 2025, to deny the Texas House the two‐thirds quorum (at least 100 of 150 members) needed to take up legislation, particularly a controversial GOP‑backed congressional redistricting plan aimed at gaining up five additional Republican U.S. House seats. Governor Greg Abbott subsequently threatened to arrest these Democrats unless they return to allow a vote to take place. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Texas House Democrats who fled are arrested by any jurisdiction for any charges between August 4, 4:00 PM ET, and August 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/any-fleeing-texas-house-democrats-arrested-by-friday
| Thomaswaynedecker | Yes | 384.69 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 351.91 |
| kuranes90 | Yes | 337.26 |
| orchestrator | Yes | 204.98 |
| craneoperator | Yes | 164.77 |
| TPInvests | Yes | 130 |
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