
Resolved No on 9 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7% on 4 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 7% on 4 Jan 2026 and the low 0.1% on 8 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.4 points down, to 1.7% on 5 Jan 2026. $216.81K traded over the market's life.
100 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 10, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 9 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 7.0% |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JorJorno | Yes | 3.3K |
| slight- | Yes | 2.84K |
| kandinsky | Yes | 2.15K |
| Troopnet33 | Yes | 1.84K |
| Solar Lynx 3CC0 | Yes | 1.01K |
| Player2088 | Yes | 1K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 748 |
| Calvinnnnn | Yes | 700 |
| chivoexpiatorio | Yes | 680 |
| Lunar Kestrel 1A23 | Yes | 662.33 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil on the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-strike-on-venezuela-on
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