Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 32% on 27 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 32% on 27 Jun 2025 and the low 0.2% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 22.5% on 28 Jun 2025. $1.19M traded over the market's life.
292 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 190 points · 27 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2025 | 32.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| shamoyu | Yes | 38K |
| vk7 | Yes | 11.62K |
| markdubmogulmoves | Yes | 7.36K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 26, 7:00 PM ET and, December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-military-action-against-iran-before-2026
| Yes |
| 4.62K |
| JP69420 | Yes | 4.38K |
| idanmasas | Yes | 2.96K |
| amoruniversitas | Yes | 2.79K |
| djwcx | Yes | 2.73K |
| J-rod | Yes | 2.35K |
| Topg2837 | Yes | 2.12K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
