Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu in 2024?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$48.3K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 21% on 20 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 20 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 21% on 20 Dec 2024 and the lowest 1.5% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 10% on 21 Dec 2024. $48.3K traded over the market's life.

31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 9:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 20 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Dec 2024	21.0%
1 Jan 2025	1.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
BirdFluRUs	Yes	7.04K
Stranger4711	Yes	975.14
coaleater	Yes	767.39
Mellow-Threat	Yes	402.04

10 of 31 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On December 18, 2024, Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in California over the H5N1 bird flu outbreak. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/osint613/status/1869497993977823355 This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of emergency directly related to an outbreak of H5N1 is declared in any state other than California by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be announcements from the relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.