Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 2 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 37.5% on 3 Dec 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 19% on 20 Dec 2023. $44.35K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 3:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 2 Dec 2023 – 1 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2023 | 34.5% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aero-skylark | No | 6.55 |
| Incertualist | No | 1.27 |
| JibasJr | Yes | 0.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between December 1, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 48 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on December 30, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 48 hours. This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in-2023
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