Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 28 Dec 2023. Before it settled, the high was 40.5% on 28 Dec 2023 and the low 0.4% on 16 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 12.5% on 4 Jan 2024. $18.2K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 20 points · 28 Dec 2023 – 16 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Dec 2023 | 40.5% |
| 16 Jan 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Watson | Yes | 34.95 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between December 26, 2023, and January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on January 15, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours. This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-jan-15
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