Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 61%. Yes opened at 79.5% on 8 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 8 Jul 2025 to 21 Jul 2025, the highest close was 79.5% on 8 Jul 2025 and the lowest 55.5% on 20 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 73% on 17 Jul 2025. $489.41K traded over the market's life.
141 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 22, 4:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 8 Jul 2025 – 21 Jul 2025, chart shows 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | 79.5% |
| 21 Jul 2025 | 61.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Marks1000 | No | 28.92K |
| featherickk | No | 6.97K |
| Pleasant-Passenger | No | 6.31K |
| Growing-Ornament | No | 3.9K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate between July 7, 5 PM ET and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-israel-strike-on-yemen-in-july
| givenchi | No | 3.36K |
| Talmor | No | 1.97K |
| prime770 | No | 1.69K |
| calculatedb | No | 1.67K |
| Quiet Comet B9E5 | No | 1.28K |
| theblockchainguy | No | 1.22K |
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