Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 27 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 67% on 6 Nov 2024 and the low 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 46.5% on 8 Nov 2024. $3.17M traded over the market's life.
575 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 27 Oct 2024 – 1 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2024 | 43.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KarlMarx2024 | Yes | 30.01K |
| whatisthisclownmarket | Yes | 20.22K |
| theking19 | Yes | 13K |
| Ptolemyii | Yes | 9K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between October 25, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-iran-strike-on-israel-in-2024
| polysin | Yes | 7.56K |
| obama2024willhappen | Yes | 5.4K |
| RubiC | Yes | 5.11K |
| Humming-Cloth | Yes | 5.01K |
| MGH | Yes | 4.96K |
| ForeverWings | Yes | 4.5K |
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