Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 64% on 25 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 64% on 25 Nov 2025 and the low 0.7% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 41% on 12 Dec 2025. $7.47K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 39 points · 25 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | 64.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 500 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 313 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 232 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 179 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) into Russian territory between November 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Tests used outside of combat will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent, and The Guardian may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-atacms-strike-into-russian-territory-by-december-31
| shilly | Yes | 131.42 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 121 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 110 |
| amused85 | Yes | 103.62 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 74 |
| haixiongdao | Yes | 60.98 |
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