Analytics
Resolved Yes on 20 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 45% on 15 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 99.9% on 19 Sep 2025 and the low 42.5% on 17 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 57 points up, to 99.9% on 19 Sep 2025. $41.01K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 15 Sep 2025 – 20 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2025 | 45.0% |
| 20 Sep 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ogjuan | No | 6.28K |
| Tonymontana96 | No | 847.66 |
| duderr | No | 555 |
| Frings127 | No | 536.06 |
| bigmoneybigwin | No | 500 |
| Weepy-Starter | No | 500 |
| Gloomy-Dredger | No | 255.3 |
| Silver Sphinx E4EA | No | 180 |
| Minersolo | No | 118.62 |
| Hasty-Series | No | 109.82 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 5:10 PM ET, and September 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until October 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-7pt0-or-above-earthquake-by-september-30-162
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