Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?

Resolved

Yes, settled Oct 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$184.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 11, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 11 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 86.5% on 19 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2025 to 11 Oct 2025, the highest close was 99.8% on 11 Oct 2025 and the lowest 58% on 9 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 99.8% on 11 Oct 2025. $184.42K traded over the market's life.

54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 12, 8:34 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 19 Sep 2025 – 11 Oct 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Sep 2025	86.5%
11 Oct 2025	99.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
DrMclure	No	9.83K
tugfyutkfu7687ygh7687965t	No	7.34K
Whispered-People	No	3.85K
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	1.95K

10 of 54 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between September 18, 5:00 PM, and October 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.