Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 48% on 9 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 58.5% on 10 Dec 2025 and the low 0.1% on 4 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 58.5% on 10 Dec 2025. $84.01K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 5, 4:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 28 points · 9 Dec 2025 – 4 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2025 | 48.0% |
| 4 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hasty-Map | Yes | 6.49K |
| DEGENKHAN | Yes | 3.76K |
| seoul | Yes | 1K |
| DogsInPools | Yes | 689.74 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-7pt0-or-above-earthquake-by-548
| NNLL | Yes | 486.45 |
| ilovefaker123 | Yes | 343.49 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 306 |
| banan | Yes | 182 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 179 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
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