Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 7, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$42.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 7, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 7 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 2 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2025 to 7 Dec 2025, the highest close was 98.9% on 7 Dec 2025 and the lowest 53.5% on 2 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 98.9% on 7 Dec 2025. $42.15K traded over the market's life.

42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 9, 12:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 2 Dec 2025 – 7 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Dec 2025	53.5%
7 Dec 2025	98.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	1.11K
Keen Vector 63D9	No	882.34
Setandforgetson	No	441.08
Emerald Pioneer D14A	No	316

10 of 42 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 1, 2025 2:00 PM ET, and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.