Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 16, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$40.5K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 16, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 16 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 47% on 9 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 9 Dec 2025 to 16 Dec 2025, the highest close was 47% on 9 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 16 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 23.5% on 10 Dec 2025. $40.47K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 26, 8:54 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 9 Dec 2025 – 16 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Dec 2025	47.0%
16 Dec 2025	1.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
DEGENKHAN	Yes	1.78K
zonh	Yes	1K
Generous-Shawl	Yes	775.12
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	619

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.