Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 16, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$21.0K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 16, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 16 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 78%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 12 Apr 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60.5% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 22% on 12 Apr 2026. $21.05K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 7:51 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 12 Apr 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Apr 2026	31.5%
12 Apr 2026	22.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Rapid Kestrel A206	Yes	100
TooYoungToWin	Yes	66.66
Lavincey	Yes	50
Sversch	Yes	24.99

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.