
Resolved No on 11 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 57%. Yes opened at 55% on 22 Aug 2024. Before it settled, the high was 59% on 23 Aug 2024 and the low 35.5% on 31 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 47% on 28 Aug 2024. $112.46K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 12, 2:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 22 Aug 2024 – 11 Sep 2024, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2024 | 55.0% |
| 11 Sep 2024 | 43.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Feminine-Notice | Yes | 595.12 |
| VFALL | Yes | 218.25 |
| karaco7 | Yes | 101.43 |
| Bolichesgod68 | Yes | 67.16 |
| Swift Ledger 33C1 | Yes | 64.07 |
| not-the-fed | Yes | 40 |
| Hussieny | Yes | 40 |
| Damaged-Jumper | Yes | 11.83 |
| Ghxst20 | Yes | 10.87 |
| Hades | Yes | 8.12 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending August 2024 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 2.5 percent over the 12 month period ending August 2024 and “No“ otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS August 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2024, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. ---- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if inflation over the 12 month period ending in August before seasonal adjustment is 2.6%, this market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 2.5%, this market will resolve to “No”).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/annual-inflation-above-2pt5-in-august
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