Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 65% on 28 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 28 Dec 2023 to 3 Jan 2024, the highest close was 65% on 28 Dec 2023 and the lowest 0.3% on 3 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 13.5% on 30 Dec 2023. $97.48K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 5:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 28 Dec 2023 – 3 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Dec 2023 | 65.0% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa | Yes | 0.07 |
| cyberbb404 | Yes | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mariah Carey's "All I want for Christmas is You" is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 6, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve as soon as data for the week of January 6 is released (Which typically occurs on the Tuesday, i.e. Jan 2). The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-you-1-on-billboard-hot-100-first-week-of-2024
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