Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 37.5%. Yes opened at 26.5% on 2 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 133 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2026 to 21 Aug 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68% on 20 Aug 2026 and the lowest 10% on 7 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 17.5% on 29 Apr 2026. $27.18K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 2 Apr 2026 – 21 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2026 | 26.5% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 62.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sharky.B | Yes | 2K |
| aztecwillnevercooke | Yes | 912.62 |
| mmhong | Yes | 695.73 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/aligned-layer-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| AheadoftheMob | Yes | 520.29 |
| alijbee | Yes | 472.88 |
| merlen | Yes | 293.01 |
| PredictionEater | Yes | 200 |
| cornishon1 | Yes | 200 |
| winson4 | Yes | 140 |
| musiepon | Yes | 129.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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