The question, the state of play, and how it settles
Facts updated Apr 26, 2024
“Alex Wice vs. Hsaka - Most Liked Post Today” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Mar 7, 2024. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 hourly price points from Mar 7, 2024 to Mar 8, 2024 (Yes between 1.7% and 50.0%); 38 recent public fills from 13 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Timeline
Event starts
Mar 6, 2024
Trading closed
Mar 7, 2024
Now
Live observation
Event starts
Source Evidence
Evidence coverage
Items
2
Fetched
2
Latest
Apr 25, 2024
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Depth
Observed
Apr 26, 2024
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.
Market state
Closed
Order book
Captured book available
Observed Yes
0.0%
The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.
Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.
Rows loaded
Wallets
Top 10 share
Yes / No shares
The provider top-holder sample is currently unavailable.
Recent tapeLatest public market trades.
Trades loaded
38
Wallets
13
Loaded notional
$11.34K
Hsaka buy at 99.9%
Field guide
How to read this market
9 stops
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
01
Yes and No prices
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Last observed
Yes 0.0¢ · No 100.0¢
02
Implied probability
Price historyPolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Mar 8, 12:00 AM
Points
2
Latest close
1.7%
Last bucket
Mar 8, 12:00 AM
Top holdersLargest rows from the capped public top-holder endpoint; not venue-wide open interest.
Top-holder sample unavailable
The current provider holder request did not complete. No legacy holder rows are being substituted.
Event contextBest-effort grouped event lookup for this market.
Alex Wice vs. Hsaka - Most Liked Post Today
Uncategorized • 1 linked markets
Questions
Questions about this market
What is the “Alex Wice vs. Hsaka - Most Liked Post Today” market asking?
It asks whether the following will happen: Alex Wice vs. Hsaka - Most Liked Post Today Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?
At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?
Trading is scheduled to close on Mar 7, 2024. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?
This is a market on whether Alex Wice (https://twitter.com/AWice) or Hsaka (https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades) will have the most liked post made on March 7. This market will resolve to "Alex Wice " if @AWice has the most liked post on March 7. This market will resolve to "Hsaka" if @HsakaTrades has the most liked post on March 7. This market will resolve to 50-50 if they are tied (for example if both Alex Wice and Hsaka's most liked post shows 2.1k likes, this market will resolve to 50-50). For the purposes of resolving this market, only main feed posts (including quote posts) will count.…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
24h volume ($0) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Mar 6, 2024
Trading closedMar 7, 2024
NowLive observation
Outcomes
Alex Wice
0.0¢ · 0.0%
Hsaka
100.0¢ · 100.0%
Resolution rules
This is a market on whether Alex Wice (https://twitter.com/AWice) or Hsaka (https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades) will have the most liked post made on March 7.
This market will resolve to "Alex Wice " if @AWice has the most liked post on March 7.
This market will resolve to "Hsaka" if @HsakaTrades has the most liked post on March 7.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if they are tied (for example if both Alex Wice and Hsaka's most liked post shows 2.1k likes, this market will resolve to 50-50).
For the purposes of resolving this market, only main feed posts (including quote posts) will count. Replies and reposts will NOT count for this market's resolution, in addition to posts deleted before March 8, 2024, 12:00 AM ET.
The resolution for this market will be based on checking the most liked post made by each account between March 7, 2024, 12:00 AM ET (inclusive) and March 7, 2024 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) at precisely March 8, 2024, 12:00 AM ET. If upon check at resolution time, one of the accounts has no posts on March 7 or was banned/deleted, this market will resolve to the other account. If both have no posts/were banned/deleted, this market resolves 50-50.
Likes will be determined based on their appearance on X's desktop interface in English ET, as shown at the time of assessment, including any rounding shown. More granular numbers using different languages/regions will NOT be considered.
History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Mar 8, 12:00 AM
Points
2
Move
-48 pts
Range
1.7% - 50.0%
Mar 7, 12:00 AM to Mar 8, 12:00 AM
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Yes chance
0.0%
03
24h volume
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Traded in 24h
$0
04
Liquidity
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
05
Spread
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
06
Top holders and concentration
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
07
Trade tape
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Loaded fills
38 fills · 13 wallets · $11.34K
08
Price history
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
2 hourly points
1.7% to 50.0% · -48 pts
09
Close and resolution
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
Closes
Mar 7, 2024
This is a market on whether Alex Wice (https://twitter.com/AWice) or Hsaka (https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades) will have the most liked post made on March 7.
This market will resolve to "Alex Wice " if @AWice has the most liked post on March 7.
This market will resolve to "Hsaka" if @HsakaTrades has the most liked post on March 7.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if they are tied (for example if both Alex Wice and Hsaka's most liked post shows 2.1k likes, this market will resolve to 50-50).
For the purposes of resolving this market, only main feed posts (including quote posts) will count. Replies and reposts will NOT count for this market's resolution, in addition to posts deleted before March 8, 2024, 12:00 AM ET.
The resolution for this market will be based on checking the most liked post made by each account between March 7, 2024, 12:00 AM ET (inclusive) and March 7, 2024 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) at precisely March 8, 2024, 12:00 AM ET. If upon check at resolution time, one of the accounts has no posts on March 7 or was banned/deleted, this market will resolve to the other account. If both have no posts/were banned/deleted, this market resolves 50-50.
Likes will be determined based on their appearance on X's desktop interface in English ET, as shown at the time of assessment, including any rounding shown. More granular numbers using different languages/regions will NOT be considered.
EvidenceMarket-scoped source, creator, and related-market links.
Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.
No trader leaderboard
Market-scoped trader rows are not available for this market.
Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?
Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Apr 26, 3:01 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.
Can I trade this market on Vultax?
No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/alex-wice-vs-hsaka-most-liked-post-today) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.
