Analytics
Yes is at 7.2%, down 2.3 points from 9.5% when the market opened on 9 Apr 2026.
Across the 197 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.2% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 8 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15.3%; a month before, 2.3%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 50.2% on 21 Oct 2026.
$1.49K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $131.26, with a 7.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 65 trades, $45.55 bought Yes and $485.31 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Swift Atlas 45FA with 145 shares; the largest No position is 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 with 253. Ten wallets hold 87% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 10:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 197 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 9.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 7.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 253.15 |
| Thesickest | No | 236.03 |
| Swift Atlas 45FA | Yes | 144.83 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/alcatraz-reopened-in-2026
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 124.99 |
| haoquan | Yes | 98.65 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 59.77 |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 35.18 |
| Rajiff654 | No | 28.91 |
| PPMT | Yes | 28.85 |
| TioSam | Yes | 27.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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