Analytics
Paper trading
Yes is at 2.5%, down 2.4 points from 4.8% when the market opened on 12 Apr 2026.
The high was 7.1% on 25 May 2026 and the low 1.1% on 11 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.5%; a month ago, 2.5%.
$1.02 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $23.1K since listing. The order book holds $6.84K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $457.09 bought Yes and $3.26K bought No.
The largest Yes position is PMPD with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is Car with 527. Ten wallets hold 67.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 79 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 14, 5:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 177 points, 12 Apr 2026 – 14 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | 4.8% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PMPD | Yes | 2.7K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 527.21 |
| leurop2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/adam-back-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31
| No |
| 399.06 |
| gghff | No | 379.91 |
| shadowrunner | No | 300 |
| TheMasterMind | No | 300 |
| J-E-R | No | 250 |
| AdvancedMoneyDoubler | No | 208.97 |
| 16girlfuxk1litteboy | No | 200 |
| 52adsa | Yes | 196.57 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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