Analytics
Yes is at 0.9%, down 25 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 22 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 1.9% on 2 Oct 2026.
$1.5K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $18.67K, with a 1.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 33 trades, $1.72 bought Yes and $846.27 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. with 150 shares; the largest No position is trumppink with 329.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| trumppink | No | 329 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
| mentionsone | No | 150 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/abu-musa-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260720011758214
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 149.32 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 119.96 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 118 |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv | No | 64.41 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 51 |
| popoll | No | 48 |
| ranksdog | No | 40.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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