Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 81%. Yes opened at 83.5% on 5 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2025 to 9 Apr 2025, the highest close was 90% on 8 Apr 2025 and the lowest 79% on 7 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 90% on 8 Apr 2025. $235.13K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 10, 6:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 5 Apr 2025 – 9 Apr 2025, chart shows 75%–95%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2025 | 83.5% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | 81.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cryptocons | No | 12.63K |
| WhitneyHouston | No | 4.9K |
| IamBack | No | 3.31K |
| Nessundorma | No | 1.38K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 54% tariff on all imports from China set to take effect on April 9, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 54% general tariff on imports from China into the United States goes into effect for any amount of time between April 4, 2025, and April 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the 54% tariff, as announced by the Trump administration, must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only the 54% general tariff will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or specific goods (e.g., autos, steel) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/54-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-china-by-wednesday
| brght | No | 1.11K |
| BondSeller | No | 785 |
| icallhimgamblor | No | 555.56 |
| Nimo | No | 438.86 |
| futureborn | No | 157.89 |
| Moritzhh2744 | No | 105.22 |
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